The withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement, announced by Donald Trump during the campaign, is based on profoundly ideological and economic motivations. Trump, who is sceptical about climate change, sees the agreement as a threat to the US economy and national sovereignty. He justifies his withdrawal by claiming that climate commitments would disadvantage American industry, particularly in the coal, oil & gas sectors, to the benefit of countries such as China and India. By withdrawing, he is seeking to protect traditional jobs while distancing himself from multilateral frameworks that he deems restrictive and unfair.
The inaction of China in upholding the Paris agreement could be used as a pretext by the US to pull out of the agreement. Both China and the US are major polluters, and the Trump administration, which is already sceptical about climate change, believes that China's lack of commitment to the Paris agreement will hinder US economic growth and give China an unfair energy advantage over the US.
However, this decision will have serious and lasting consequences for global efforts to combat climate change. As the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, their withdrawal sends a negative signal to the international community and will slowdown collective commitments, weakening funding for vulnerable countries.
In the long term, this slowdown will increase the risk of exceeding critical warming thresholds (1.5°C or 2°C), exacerbating the effects of climate change. This includes an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters suchas hurricanes, droughts, floods, and fires. Already fragile ecosystems, such as coral reefs and tropical forests, risk collapse, causing irreversible disruption to biodiversity and human populations.
By encouraging inaction at a crucial time, this withdrawal will leave deep scars that will make climate targets more difficult, if not impossible, to achieve, increasing environmental and human disasters in the future.
Environmental Impact
Slowing Global Efforts: The United States, one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters (accounting for around 15% of global emissions), stepping away from the agreement weakens the global momentum to achieve emission reduction targets. This withdrawal has encouraged some countries to loosen their commitments.
The global fight against climate change has slowed down due to several factors:
▪ U.S. Share in Global Emissions: Historically one of the biggest contributors to green house gas emissions, the U.S. withdrawal sends a discouraging signal.
▪ Reduced Pressure on Other Economies: Other countries, especially developing ones like India or Brazil, may see the U.S. withdrawal as justification for lowering their own ambitions.
▪ Weakened Global Targets: The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Without active U.S. participation, these goals become much harder to achieve.
Political Domino Effect: Weakening International Commitments: The withdrawal emboldens climate-skeptic leaders to delay or reduce their commitments. For instance, under Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil rolled back environmental protections, particularly in the Amazon, though Lula's return has been a positive shift for the country's climate policies.
Reduced Climate Financing: The U.S. was expected to contribute significantly to the"Green Climate Fund," which helps developing countries adapt to climate change. Its withdrawal reduces available financial resources, hindering efforts in vulnerable regions.
Barriers to Climate Innovation: Less Incentive for Technological Cooperation: Multilateral agreements enable knowledge and technology sharing. By leaving the Paris Agreement, the U.S. has reduced its involvement in these exchanges.
Impact on Global Markets: The U.S. withdrawal sends mixed signals to investors and industries about the urgency of climate action, slowing investments in renewable energy and low-carbon technologies.
Negative Symbolism: Loss of Moral Leadership: As a global power, the U.S. plays a central role in shaping international norms. Its withdrawal undermines the perception that fighting climate change is a universal priority.
Reduced Global Momentum: The Paris Agreement relies on collective action, with countries progressively increasing their climate ambitions (via Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs). The absence of the U.S. weakens this dynamic.
Widening North-South Divide: Less Support for Developing Countries: These nations, often the most affected by climate change, rely on funding and technology transfers promised under the Paris Agreement. The U.S. withdrawal has delayed many projects, exacerbating climate inequality between the Global North and South.
The U.S. withdrawal has disrupted global efforts, causing a loss of vigour and coherence in collective actions. While some nations, such as the European Union and China, have tried to sustain momentum, global progress slowed, particularly between 2017 and 2020. Although the U.S. rejoining under Biden helped repair some damage, the lost time has brought the world closer to critical emission and climate impact thresholds.
Economic Repercussions
Delays in the Green Economy: The withdrawal slows American investments in renewable energy and green innovation, benefiting polluting industries like coal and oil,which Trump sought to promote.
Global Competition: Countries like China and the European Union are likely to seize this opportunity to strengthen their economic leadership in green technologies.
Geopolitical Consequences
Weakened International Cooperation: The withdrawal undermines trust in multilateral agreements and may encourage other countries to reassess or delay their commitments.
Alternative Leadership: China, the European Union, and other nations will attempt to fill the void left by the U.S. and position themselves as leaders in climate action.
Reactions and Counter-Movements
Local Mobilization in the U.S.: Despite federal disengagement, many U.S. states, cities, and businesses have maintained their commitments to meet the Paris Agreement goals (e.g., the "We Are Still In" initiative).
Catalyst for Stronger Commitments: The U.S. withdrawal will also motivate other countries to reinforce their climate commitments, showcasing their determination to act despite U.S. disengagement.
The withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreements under Trump will have serious and lasting consequences for global efforts to combat climate change. As the second largest emitter of green house gases, its withdrawal has sent a negative signal to the international community, putting the brakes on collective commitments and weakening funding for vulnerable countries.
In the long term, this slowdown will increase the risk of exceeding critical warming thresholds (1.5°C or 2°C), exacerbating the effectsof climate change. This includes an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters such as hurricanes, droughts, floods, and fires. Already fragile ecosystems, such as coral reefs and tropical forests, risk collapse, causing irreversible disruption to biodiversity and human populations.
By encouraging inaction at a crucial time, this withdrawal will undoubtedly leave deep scars that will make it more difficult, if not impossible, to achieve climate targets, thereby increasing environmental and human disasters in the future.